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What's in Store for Federal Realty (FRT) This Earnings Season?

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Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2022 results on Aug 4 before market open. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display increases in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this retail REIT reported a surprise of 4.17% in terms of FFO per share. Results reflected better-than-anticipated revenues.

Over the last four quarters, Federal Realty surpassed estimates on all occasions, the average beat being 11.99%. The graph below depicts the surprise history of the company:

Let’s see how things have shaped up before this announcement.

Key Factors

Per a report from CBRE Group (CBRE - Free Report) , retail real estate metrics remained strong in the second quarter, even amid weak retail sales growth. Total retail sales increased 3.8% year over year in the second quarter, lower than the five-year quarterly average of 7.0%. The average retail asking rent improved 2.4% year over year to $22.39 per square foot in the second quarter. It marked the highest annual growth rate since the first quarter of 2017. The retail availability rate in the second quarter hit a 10-year low of 5.1%.

Retail space absorption decreased 40% quarter over quarter and 20% year over year to 19.9 million square feet in the second quarter. Second-quarter absorptions were mainly driven by an expansion by existing retailers as new developments remained muted, per the CBRE Group report.

Federal Realty too is anticipated to have benefited from the recovery in the retail real estate market. The company has a portfolio of premium retail assets, mainly situated in major coastal markets from Washington, D.C. to Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles. FRT strategically selected the first-ring suburbs of major metropolitan markets.

Due to strong demographics and the infill nature of its properties, the company has been able to maintain a high occupancy level over the years. Moreover, its focus on the open-air format and “The Pick-Up” concept is likely to have helped the company attract tenants in the second quarter as such assets gained attention since the onset of the health crisis.

With widespread vaccination, the resumption of the economy and decent consumer spending, this retail REIT is anticipated to have benefited from its superior assets in premium locations and witnessed an improvement in the leasing environment.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $253.03 million, calling for a 9.24% increase from the year-ago period. The consensus mark for rental revenues is pegged at $248.15 million, suggesting a rise from the year-ago period’s $230.8 million.

Federal Realty’s activities during the soon-to-be-reported quarter were adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second-quarter FFO per share has been revised a cent upward to $1.50 in the past month. It also suggests 6.38% growth year over year.

Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts:

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a positive surprise in terms of FFO per share for FRT this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an FFO beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Federal Realty currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of -1.12%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are two stocks from the broader REIT sector — Public Storage (PSA - Free Report) and Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST - Free Report) — that you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

Public Storage, slated to release quarterly numbers on Aug 4, has an Earnings ESP of +0.31% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Host Hotels & Resorts, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Aug 3, currently has an Earnings ESP of +9.18% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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